Thanks to Texas, tiering is back to a two-man race

Now we have a race. I just knew that if all of us in the media started mouthing off and writing that the Chase was over after Talladega something goofy would happen and there you go. Indeed things are much closer, but what is the realistic chance the No. 48 team will run into problems two weeks in a row? Not likely. But it certainly gives us a reason to watch these final two races of 2009.

• Get your tickets
• Book your travel

Already this week you have no doubt heard a lot about the fact that Mark Martin won at Phoenix in the spring and also the fact that Jimmie Johnson has won three of the past four Phoenix races. But which driver really has the advantage this week? Let's dive a little deeper into the numbers and try to find an answer to that question.

When Cup teams prepare for Phoenix they look at two other race tracks ... Richmond and New Hampshire. You will see teams often bring the same car to all three tracks and also use similar setups at all three places too. All three tracks are relatively flat, about the same length and the cars react almost identical on corner entry and exit at all three places. So that is why the three translate so well to each other.

So far this season we have had five races at those tracks. Martin's finishes in those races ... fifth, first, 14th, fourth and first. Johnson's finishes ... 36th, fourth, ninth, 11th, and fourth. All of that gives Martin an average finish of 5.0 and Johnson 12.8.

Even if you removed Johnson's poor finish at Richmond in the spring (36th), it's clear to see that Martin has a slight edge at this type of track this season. So don't be surprised to see Martin gain just a few points on Johnson this weekend and we go to Homestead with a championship battle that is a little closer than Johnson would like.

TIER 1

Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (No Change)
I am quite sure the Texas race is still causing some sleepless nights in the No. 48 camp but should it? Sure, the lead is just 73 points heading into these final two races but Johnson has been terrific at Phoenix in recent years. Certainly good enough to keep Martin in sight this weekend and likely put himself in a position to not lose too many points.

Think of it this way, Johnson has come to this particular race the past two years not really needing a win, just needing to finish well to maintain his championship lead, and yet he still was fast enough and aggressive enough to win the race ... both times. This team has been here before and they are savvy enough not to panic and stay focused on their task. A top-10 this weekend will give Johnson a terrific shot to win the title next week at Homestead, a track where, this time, Johnson will have the advantage on Martin. (Continued)