Final Turn: On the outside looking in for Chase berth

There is an interesting fact about the Richmond race -- if you are in the top 12 in points following Richmond, you will most likely be there when the Chase begins.

Nearly 80 percent of the drivers since the Chase's inception in 2004 have made the Chase after being in a Chase spot following Richmond. If that holds true, then some pretty big names won't be competing for a title this season including Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mark Martin and Kevin Harvick.

There is some hope though. If the numbers hold true, these three "could" work their way into the top 12, but it's not likely. Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, 11 in the top-12 after Richmond went on to make the Chase in '07 and 10 drivers did last season.

So the 2009 postseason will be without some superstars. The question is, which of these three can turn around what has already been a disappointing season?

Mark Martin

Martin is currently 15th in points, 61 behind 12th-place Matt Kenseth and a look at where he has finished is the definition of a roller-coaster type season.

He has the most wins, top-fives and top-10s for a driver ranked outside the top 12. But the four finishes of 31st or worse have really hurt. Three DNFs weren't completely his fault though, with two engine failures and getting caught up in the Big One at Talladega.

His fifth-place run at Richmond is his fifth finish of seventh or better in the last six races so Martin looks like he has what it takes to crack the top 12, he just has to avoid the bad luck that has struck on numerous occasions this season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Earnhardt Jr. is 18th in points, 87 behind Kenseth and the fact he is still in the discussion for a Chase berth is impressive considering how rocky his season has been.

It was another disappointing week for Junior, as he and his team just couldn't find the right setup at Richmond and he struggled to a 27th-place finish, one lap down.

"I'm just frustrated with how our car ran," Junior said following the race.

Earnhardt Jr. has just six lead-lap finishes this season and has finished 20th or worse in three of the last four races. Momentum is clearly not on the side of the No. 88 and until this team figures out how to right the ship -- his slide in the points could continue.

Kevin Harvick

After crashing in Richmond, Harvick fell three spots in the standings to 23rd, 208 behind Kenseth. This is the second-worst start to a season Harvick has had in his Cup career and it shows no signs of slowing.

Harvick is in a slump and needs something drastic to break it. Owner Richard Childress made the first move by taking away long-time crew chief Todd Berrier and the rest of the No. 29 crew and swapping them with Gil Martin and the crew of the No. 07 team. It can't be decided after one race if it was the right thing to do, but Harvick was in the top 10 most of the race at Richmond until a blown tire sent him into the wall relegating him to a 34th-place finish.

The 34th at RIR was his fourth finish of 30th or worse in the last six races. After a second at Daytona and a fourth at Atlanta, his best finish is 11th, coming at Martinsville more than a month ago.

Two hundred points is a lot to make up in 16 races, but it can be done. For Harvick's sake, hopefully the crew swap is the remedy to his '09 woes.

Final Turn: Can Martin, Junior or Harvick turn their season around and make the Chase?
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