Head2Head: Who will get fourth Richmond victory?

There's one reason why Tony Stewart will win this weekend at Richmond -- it's time.

Of the three drivers looking to earn win No. 4 at the 0.75-mile short track in Virginia -- Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Stewart -- it just feels like it's time for Smoke to get that first victory as an owner.

After an OK start to the season which saw the No. 14 post three eighth-place finishes and a couple outside the top 15, Stewart put together an impressive stretch of success with a third at Martinsville, a fourth at Texas and a second at Phoenix. Last week at Talladega, Stewart was right there looking for the win before he dropped a cylinder and finished 23rd.

It's the same at Richmond, where Smoke's three wins came in his first seven races at the track. Since then, he's had some hiccups but he's also been oh so close. Stewart has finished second in three of the last eight races and in that stretch has seven top-eight finishes.

But put the stats aside.

Of Junior, Johnson and Stewart, it just feels like it's Smoke's turn. With Stewart you can feel the momentum building. He's so close and wants that first win so bad, everyone in the garage knows it's just a matter of time.

Richmond was the site of Stewart's first Cup victory -- how appropriate that one of NASCAR's most popular stars gets his first win as an owner there as well.

Of the active drivers with three Cup Series wins at Richmond, Jimmie Johnson stands the best chance to make it four Saturday night.

When predicting performance, it's best to focus on what drivers have done recently as the new chassis has essentially rendered old notes and successes of yesteryear irrelevant. Tony Stewart has just as many wins at RIR as Johnson does, but Smoke hasn't visited Victory Lane there since 2002. In the past four Cup events at the track, the 48 team won thrice.

In his 2007 sweep, Johnson started inside the top five both times and led more than a quarter of the laps. Getting caught in a mess not of his own making in the 2008 spring race -- and the 30th-place finish that came with it -- is the only blemish to Johnson's track record since the inception of the new car.

In addition to his recent success at the Virginia venue, he has stepped up his flat track and short track programs. Martinsville? Five wins in the last six races. Phoenix? Three of the last four. Fontana? Two wins since fall of 2007. Johnson even posted a career-best finish at Bristol this spring as he finished where he started -- third.

Loudon is probably most comparable to Richmond. Stewart's average finish the past four races at New Hampshire is 9.0 while Johnson's is 5.5.

With recent wins at Richmond and similar tracks, Johnson has the mojo to become the next four-time RIR winner.